You guys, it’s five days before the Oscars and I have no idea who’s going to win!
Okay, that’s not completely true. I know who’s going to win Best Actress (Julianne Moore) and Best Supporting Actor (J.K. Simmons) and Best Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette). You can bet the farm on those, but it doesn’t make up for the fact that the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor races are all completely up in the air.
Usually by now, with the various guild awards (the PGA, the DGA, the WGA, et al) and the Golden Globes in our rear view mirror, there is a clear frontrunner for Best Picture.
Instead, there are two—or maybe three?—with a legitimate shot at glory.
For the longest time, Boyhood was considered the overwhelming frontrunner.
Personally? I never bought it. Wonderful as Boyhood is, it’s an extremely intimate, subtle, and dare I say, artsy film by Oscar standards, and I couldn’t find the Oscar corollary. Modest, heartfelt, deeply personal films like that just don’t win Oscars—they tend to win Best Original Screenplay, if that. (In the case of Boyhood, the screenplay is one of the least interesting things about it, so that trend won’t continue.)
There are, of course, arguments in its favor. Boyhood has that extraordinary structure—or gimmick, if you’re feeling less charitable: It was made over the course of 12 years, giving its coming of age story a wistfulness, a home-movies poignancy that otherwise wouldn’t be possible.
Some months back, when I mentioned to a colleague that I didn’t think Boyhood was an Oscar-type film, she replied: “Most Oscar voters are middle-aged men. Do not underestimate the nostalgia factor.”
And it’s true. On the “relatable” scale (and lord knows people crave relatability these days—just ask Ira Glass), Boyhood wins, by a mile. It reminds me of the joke about Alexander Payne’s Sideways: That the film, about a frustrated, male, middle-aged writer, was a big hit with the critics because they were all frustrated, male, middle-aged writers.
Still, it’s important to note that Sideways didn’t win Best Picture that year. (It won the trusty Best Adapted Screenplay, the great consolation prize for smart, high-brow indies.)
For months (seriously, months), I was the only critic who didn’t believe that Boyhood was the obvious frontrunner. I was stubborn, doubling down even after Boyhood won Best Drama at the Golden Globes.
But I couldn’t help but to notice one undeniable factor in Boyhood‘s favor: No true challenger had emerged.
There were many contenders that all ended up being pretenders.
Unbroken, a big picture about courage and WWII and the indomitability of the human spirit (all virtual catnip to Oscar voters) never got out of the starting gate—after much pre-release buzz, it opened to mediocre reviews (including mine) and wasn’t even nominated.
Then there was a pair of British films, both with an excellent Oscar pedigree.
The first, The Theory of Everything, boasted Eddie Redmayne’s physically transformative performance (Oscar loves when an abled man plays disabled) and was about a real live GREAT MAN (Oscar loves paying tribute to great men). But the film ultimately proved to be too light-weight to be a serious contender.
The Imitation Game was about another great man (Alan Turing, who broke the Nazi code), plus it starred the trendiest prestige actor going (Benedict Cumberbatch), and had the mighty Harvey Weinstein behind it. (His “Honor the man, Honor the film” billboard in West L.A. was one of the most shameless bits of Oscar campaigning I’ve ever seen.) Indeed, The Imitation Game is still considered a contender (if I were ranking my Best Picture picks, it would be number 3), but the facile, crowd-pleasing film manages to seem less important than its subject matter. Like The Theory of Everything, it lacks gravitas.
Selma, the wonderful film about Martin Luther King Jr. and the 1965 March for Voters’ rights, had everything an Oscar film needs: A brilliant lead performance (by David Oyelowo), historical significance, emotional and thematic heft. But accusations that it misrepresented LBJ managed to stick, although I found them exaggerated (at best). What’s more, I always secretly suspected that Oscar voters have “black history fatigue” after giving Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave last year. I can’t tell you how much I hope that’s not the case. (I wrote more about Selma‘s snub here.)
Which leaves us with Boyhood‘s only real competition, Birdman. When Birdman debuted at the Venice International Film Festival, reviews were ecstatic. The film came down to earth a bit when it arrived in U.S. theaters, but critical response was still quite positive. (It currently has a 92% “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes—and, for what it’s worth, I loved it.) The film has steadily been gaining momentum on the awards circuit (it recently won the DGA, the PGA, and the SGA). Still, even Birdman is not without its drawbacks: With its magical realism and funky one-take structure, the film is a bit more eccentric than the average Best Picture winner. Plus, there’s a rather vocal critical backlash against the film—some critics feel the film constantly calls attention to its own greatness. (They basically think it’s tacky.)
So the race essentially comes down to two great films (in my opinion) that are nonetheless flawed by Oscar standards: Birdman and Boyhood.
I honestly have no idea which of these films is going to win. Hell, I wouldn’t be totally gobsmacked if some rando from left field took the award (if so, please be Grand Budapest Hotel and not American Sniper).
But I’ve been saying Boyhood doesn’t pass the Oscar film smell test all along. I’m not going to back down now.
My Best Picture prediction is: BIRDMAN
Other predictions:
Best Director:
It will almost definitely come down to Boyhood‘s Richard Linklater vs. Birdman‘s Alejandro González Iñárritu.
It’s very rare for there to be a split between Best Picture and Best Director. Curiously, it has happened the last two years (Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuarón last year when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture; Life of Pi‘s Ang Lee the year before that when Argo won Best Picture). And I think it will happen again here. Call it hedging my bets, but I feel that Linklater’s unique achievement (not to mention his incredible body of work) will give him a slight edge over Iñárritu, although, again, it’s really too close to call.
My Best Director Prediction: Richard Linklater
Best Actor
Another of the dreaded two-man races. It’ll either be Michael Keaton’s aging action star trying to rebuild his reputation and life in Birdman or Eddie Redmayne’s wonderful Stephen Hawking (lots of critical snickering over that film, but Redmayne is extraordinary in it). Judging by recent results, Redmayne has the edge (he picked up the all-important SAG award) and most Oscar pundits are predicting him for the win. Once again, I’m (uncharacteristically) going against the flow—the key to winning your Oscar pool is steadfastly sticking with the agreed-upon favorites, boring as that may be—and picking Michael Keaton. I think the sentimentality factor here is not to be underestimated.
My Best Actor prediction: Michael Keaton
Best Actress:
This will be Julianne Moore
Best Supporting Actor:
This will be J.K. Simmons
Best Supporting Actress
This will be Patricia Arquette
Best Original Screenplay:
It’s not a lock, but I think The Grand Budapest Hotel will win here. This is Oscar’s perennial consolation prize for the best, unfairly neglected indie film of the year. If that’s not Wes Anderson’s near-flawless gem, I don’t know what is.
My Best Original Screenplay prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Pundits are predicting a two-man race between The Imitation Game and Whiplash. But Whiplash, which is truly beloved, is already getting its token Oscar for J.K. Simmons. Is Oscar going to let the entire ceremony go without one major award for The Imitation Game? I think not.
My Best Adapted Screenplay prediction: The Imitation Game
And a few more predictions…
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
Best Song: “Glory” Selma
I’ll be back on Monday to dish about the show!