Kieran Culkin is going to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for A Real Pain.
I wanted to get that out of the way right off the bat because there’s so much uncertainty surrounding this year’s Academy Awards. Zoe Saldana is also almost definitely going to win Best Supporting Actress for her role in Emilia Pérez, unless her win is derailed by the controversy surrounding the film (more on that in a sec). And I’m feeling relatively comfortable picking Demi Moore as our Best Actress winner for The Substance.
But Best Picture? Best Actor? Best Director? A lot of these big categories are thrillingly up in the air. (You might even say their outcome is A Complete Unknown…*ducks.*)
It’s been a long time since we’ve had an “awards season” (one of the most cursed phrases known to man) so unpredictable. Just when you think you know which way the wind is blowing—Adrien Brody as Best Actor for his stellar work in The Brutalist, say—along comes a change in direction, like Timothée Chalamet getting an eleventh hour Screen Actors Guild nod for A Complete Unknown.
On top of that, there have been the aforementioned controversies. Some were clearly drummed up by competing studios (the disclosure that The Brutalist employed AI to zhuzz up Adrien Brody’s Hungarian accent), while others happened more organically: A journalist unearthed offensive tweets by Emilia Pérez’s Karla Sofía Gascón, the first trans woman ever to be nominated for Best Actress. Even before that, the film was controversial, with an increasingly loud online backlash for what many saw as its broad caricature of Mexican culture. (Not for nothing, the film’s director, Jacques Audiard, is French, and there are no Mexican actors in the main roles.)
Before those controversies emerged, Emilia Pérez was a veritable lock for Best International Film (its 13 nominations were most in this year’s field and made it the most nominated non-English film in Oscar history). Now it leaves the door open for an upset.
So, yeah, lots to chew on here. I’m going to do my best here with my predictions, but don’t put any money on my guesses. Except for Kieran. With him, go all in.
BEST PICTURE
Who will win: Anora
Who might win: Conclave, The Brutalist
Who should win: Anora
Final thoughts: As recently as two weeks ago, I was sure The Brutalist was going to win this thing. Then Anora won both the PGA and the DGA, making it a clear frontrunner. But, with the preferential ballot in play—meaning voters rank their choices—a much liked (if not quite loved) consensus pick could still snag the award. When you look at it that way, the universally loved Conclave—or hell, even Wicked or A Complete Unknown—could score an upset win.
BEST ACTOR
Who will win: Adrien Brody
Who might win: Timothée Chalamet
Who should win: Adrien Brody
Final thoughts: Chalamet was very good in A Complete Unknown and he’s been on an all-out charm offensive since the film’s release, hosting SNL (and serving as the musical guest), showing up to a Timothée Chalamet lookalike contest, wearing some fly (and, let’s face it, some fugly) fashion, and all-in-all being the happy-go-lucky goofball that he is on his press tour. Will his winning personality, combined with the (nothingburger, in my opinion) AI controversy propel him to a win? I still think Brody’s performance was just too good to deny, so I’m sticking with my pick.
BEST ACTRESS
Who will win: Demi Moore
Who might win: Mikey Madison
Who should win: Fernanda Torres from I’m Still Here
Final thoughts: Moore sealed her fate when she gave a stirring acceptance speech at the Golden Globes. Yes, she’s quite good in The Substance and her winning would be the feel-good moment of the Oscars, but if we’re being honest here, she gives the fifth best performance in this group (which also includes Cynthia Erivo and Gascón).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: Kieran Culkin
Who might win: Tom Wambsgans?
Who should win: Edward Norton
Final thoughts: I wish this race had been a little more contested. Norton is a heartbreaking Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown and Jeremy Strong is riveting as that snake Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. But I can’t begrudge Culkin his win. A Real Pain is a special movie and he is its beating heart.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Zoe Saldana
Who might win: Ariana Grande
Who should win: Zoe Saldana
Final thoughts: It was wonderful to see Saldana, an actress who has sometimes been buried under a sea of green makeup and CGI in films like Guardians of the Galaxy and Avatar, show the full range of her talents here. I think she has accrued enough momentum and good will over the years that her association with the now tainted Emilia Pérez won’t derail her win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Sean Baker
Who might win: Brady Corbet
Who should win: Sean Baker
Final thoughts: I admire how Corbet made a searing American epic with a limited budget in The Brutalist—and I really loved that film—but Baker has been releasing banger after banger since 2015, and Anora is arguably his best film yet. It’s his time.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who will win: A Real Pain
Who might win: Anora
Who should win: Anora
Final thoughts: Most prognosticators are picking Anora here so I’m deviating from the pack. I feel like the Oscars are going to want to reward Jesse Eisenberg, who is beloved.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who will win: Conclave
Who might win: A Complete Unknown
Who should win: Conclave
Final thoughts: I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t love Conclave (although a few are a bit iffy on that surprise ending…I dug it). Feels like its year.
A FEW MORE PREDICTIONS:
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: I’m Still Here
BEST EDITING: Conclave
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Porcelain War