Let me start this by saying I think it’s going to be a good Oscar ceremony. Jimmy Kimmel is hosting and he always does a solid job—it’s like, you can relax, a professional is in charge. The show is bringing back groups of past winners to announce the acting categories, always a nice touch and a way to maximize the star power. And, best of all, Ryan Freaking Gosling will be singing “I’m Just Ken,” which is probably going to add a million viewers on its own.
On the other hand, it has felt a bit like a slow march to the inevitable this season, hasn’t it? There are locks every year, but thanks to the juggernaut that is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer (an excellent and largely deserving film!), there are more than usual this year. I’d love to tell you to expect the unexpected, or prepare for upsets galore, or gird your loins, or whatever—but I can’t lie to you like that. Most of these categories are in the bag.
With that said, here are my (not that) bold predictions for the major categories.
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who will win: Oppenheimer
How sure am I? I’d bet the farm, if I had one.
Who could win: No other film might win. Don’t blame the messenger.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Who will win: Christopher Nolan
How sure am I? What’s surer than sure?
Who could win: Just for giggles, I’ll give Lanthimos a two-percent chance.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Who will win: Cillian Murphy
How sure am I? I’d go all in, but maybe leave a bit of emergency cash in a lock box.
Who could win: Paul Giamatti has a chance, in the Dumb and Dumber, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?” sense of the phrase. But a chance all the same.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Who will win: Lily Gladstone
How sure am I? Pretty, pretty sure.
Who could win: Emma Stone could clearly take this. It’s been neck and neck between these two great actresses all awards season, but Gladstone definitely has the mo’.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Who will win: Robert Downey Jr.
How sure am I? Like, Michael Phelps at the Beijing Olympics sure.
Who could win: People are beginning to recognize how great Mark Ruffalo was in Poor Things. But…naaa.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Who will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph”
How sure am I? If I had a second farm, I’d bet that one, too.
Who could win: Honestly, no one. But for the sake of argument, Emily Blunt.
Okay, that’s the end of the categories I’m totally sure of. I’ll throw in a few more predictions that I’m relatively confident in below:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: American Fiction
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Oppenheimer
BEST SONG: “What Was I Made For?”, Barbie
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 20 Days in Mariupol
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: The Zone of Interest
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar