The Orioles Passed the Spring Training Vibe Check

What a beautiful St. Patrick’s Day it was: a sun-splashed Monday in Fort Myers on Florida’s West Coast, with a Gulf breeze blowing 74-degree air across the Boston Red Sox’ Fenway Park-inspired spring training complex. That afternoon, a group of orange-clad Orioles wearing holiday-themed green hats left the place—dubbed Fenway South, featuring an imitation Green Monster in left field—with a convincing 12-3 win.

Of course, in spring training, final scores aren’t important. Nobody cares what a team did in February or March, especially if you’re not playing meaningful games in September or October. It’s all about individual preparation for the regular season. Pitchers aim to work their arms into game form. Hitters get comfortable. But, sometimes, a useful narrative emerges, like last Monday when a group of O’s mostly bound for the minor leagues downed the Red Sox’ likely starting lineup.

For the Orioles, there was no Gunnar Henderson, no Adley Rutschman, and no one casual fans are likely familiar with. They brought zero projected Opening Day starters from their spring home in Sarasota, and just one player—Gary Sanchez, the team’s backup catcher behind Rutschman—was expected on the O’s 40-man roster. (Two, if you count shortstop Livan Soto, who could see playing time early this year as Henderson, who is nursing a ribs-area muscle injury, begins the season on the injured list.)

O’s manager Brandon Hyde said this was the plan when you play a division rival in spring training, a team you’ll face 13 times during the year—including during your home opener (March 31) at Camden Yards. What’s the point of giving them more looks at you? Well-thought-of prospects like infielder Coby Mayo, outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr., and catcher Samuel Basallo (as a designated hitter) were there, but so were several more unfamiliar minor-league names like Vimael Machin, Griff O’Ferrall, and Collin Burns, as well as a few pitchers, Zach Fruit and Blake Money, with surnames more associated with common nouns than league-wide reputations.

Yet this group trailed the Red Sox by only 3-2 when Boston’s projected No. 2 starting pitcher Tanner Houck left in the fifth inning. Fruit and Money each tossed three strong innings in relief, shutting down the Sox’ likely starting lineup of hitters such as Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers, while the baby and little-known Birds broke things open against Boston’s bullpen with an eight-run sixth inning.

In front of a sellout crowd of 9,194 enjoying the sun, the game was out of reach. Bradfield, Soto, rightfielder Daz Cameron, and second baseman Luis Vazquez ended up driving in two runs apiece. “I’m really happy with how we played,” Hyde said afterward.

If a group of mainly Orioles prospects can beat the Red Sox’ possible starting lineup, what will the major-league O’s do against Boston on Opening Day at Camden Yards next Monday?

Here are more questions and storylines to consider as baseball soon returns to Baltimore:

A team without an ace?
Zach Eflin will start Opening Day for the Orioles in Toronto on March 27. Before we get to the analysis of that, here’s a charming video of his wife and four children delivering the announcement in an arrangement set up by the O’s coaches:

Eflin ended last season as the O’s No. 2 starter behind Cy Young-caliber Corbin Burnes, who left for Arizona in free agency this offseason. Eflin is a quality pitcher. He won 16 games for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023 and went 5-2 for the Orioles last year after a midseason trade. He allowed one run in four innings of a postseason loss in Game 2 of the A.L. Wild Card round.

But this offseason, the Orioles’ front office didn’t replace Burnes with another true No. 1 starter. General manager Mike Elias opted to start the year with Eflin and made signings like 41-year-old Charlie Morton (who will start the second game of the season) and Japanese veteran Tomoyuki Sugano. On Friday, the team also brought back 37-year-old Kyle Gibson, who won 15 games for the O’s in 2023, on a one-year deal. Homegrown talent Grayson Rodriguez remains ace material, but will start the year on the injury list with an elbow issue. Injury plagued him last year, too, with an upper-back muscle strain ending his season early.

We’ll soon find out if the starting pitching staff can handle the O’s A.L. East rivals. Right now, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich (who will start the O’s home opener next Monday) will complete the rotation. Alberto Suarez, beginning the year in the bullpen, can fill in if or when needed. Same with Gibson once he works into shape.

Two other things to keep in mind over a 162-game season: The O’s may seek more pitching at this year’s trade deadline, assuming they’re again on the hunt for a division title. Also, Kyle Bradish, front-line starter material, should return in the season’s second half after Tommy John surgery last June.

We’re waiting on Gunnar.
Gunnar Henderson is one of Baltimore’s biggest stars, and among the brightest in all of baseball. He landed on the cover of MLB The Show ’25. But he will begin the season on the 10-day injured list (backdated three days) due to a physical setback sustained in a second straight spring training.

On February 27, early in spring training, Henderson strained the intercostal muscle on his right side (around the ribs) while leaping for a catch. Last year, he dealt with an ab muscle strain on his left side. Elias said on Sunday that Henderson won’t be available for Opening Day and will continue rehabbing in Sarasota, but could be good in a week. In his place, we expect Jackson Holliday, Jorge Mateo, or Soto to fill in at shortstop.

Better news: The club’s other foundational everyday player, catcher Adley Rutschman, seems to have recovered from last season’s disappointing second half—hitting .132 in July, .229 in August, and .214 in September and October. The Orioles’ social media channels have featured videos of him launching home runs during spring training. Some speculate Rutschman had multiple injuries last year, but neither he nor the O’s front office has admitted it, though regular catcher wear and tear was at least a factor.

After the O’s were quickly eliminated from the playoffs last year, an emotional Rutschman said he was planning to get healthy. “I’m going to let my body get right,” he said. This spring, he’s made tweaks to his swing for better, consistent contact too.

Were the moves made in the off-season enough?
The Orioles have reached the playoffs two straight years, but they haven’t won a postseason game in a decade—looking overmatched against more veteran, higher-priced teams. Spending more on the right players can help.

After David Rubenstein’s first full offseason as owner, the O’s payroll is around $155 million—a figure that ranks 15th of 30 MLB teams, is 40 percent higher than last year, and is more than triple what it was in 2021. That was deliberate and due to Rubenstein and fellow owner Mike Arougheti allowing more spending.

Elias signed free-agent outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million contract; Sugano to a one-year, $13 million deal; and Morton to a $15 million pact. Deals like these weren’t made in previous years with a tighter budget. O’Neill’s was the first multi-year deal since Elias became GM in 2018. The three are the highest paid players this season, behind only Eflin. And the team essentially replaced Burnes with three veteran pitchers. Sugano, Morton, and Gibson will make approximately $33 million combined, about the same Burnes is set to make per season ($35 million) in Arizona.

Of course, long-term deals for Rutschman, Henderson, and Jordan Westburg or Colton Cowser (playing on cheaper, rookie deals) remain outstanding. Burnes left in free agency, and the O’s offseason addition may lack the star power many fans wanted. However, the players the O’s signed are a higher caliber than recent years, and could better support the team’s young talent, who will also be asked to take another step this year.

Speaking of moves, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the physical shift of Camden Yards’ left field wall—a symbolic and practical representation of the organization’s approach to winning baseball games. Three seasons ago, the front office pitched previous ownership on a move back and up, intending to help O’s pitchers allow fewer home runs to right-handers.

This November, Rubenstein approved construction to diminish Walltimore. The fence was brought in by 20 feet in some areas and lowered by as much as six. The idea is to attract righty power bats (like O’Neill) to the club and balance the interests and value of current ones (like first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, or switch hitters like Rutschman).

“Moved out, moved back. I’ve seen the data, and it says we’ll be better off. So, I hope we are,” Rubenstein recently told us in an interview for his profile in our April issue.

It remains to be seen whether these moves will help the O’s push deeper into the postseason, if they make it again, and if tinkers to what Hyde described as the team’s long-ball-reliant offense last year will be made. For now, Rubenstein has put full faith in Elias and the front office.

“His life is baseball, and my life has not been baseball,” Rubenstein told us. “I’m trying to use the skills I have to learn, but I’m still guided by Mike and his judgment.”

“It’s unbelievable how much data they have,” Rubenstein added, which is a notable observation from a guy who made a fortune in private equity. “I’m not an expert in it, and I kind of listened to them. I guess I mostly agree with what they’re doing, but I’m trying to learn a lot.”

It will be interesting to see if Rubenstein’s hands-off, empowering approach changes depending on this year’s outcome. He has a likable persona (see the team’s “The Chill” series the owner filmed with Kremer and Westburg at spring training), but he isn’t naïve.

He marvels at the O’s predictive analytics that nailed their 91 regular season wins last year, but wants more. He quips about modern game strategies, like his “favorite” new stat, a quality start, considered six innings thrown by a starting pitcher allowing three runs or less. “It’s like Little League, everybody gets a trophy,” Rubenstein quipped. “You had a quality start.” In other words, he has the capacity to be skeptical.

Last but not least, Felix Bautista is (almost) back…
We close with the return of the closer—Felix Bautista—and its importance cannot be ignored.

Bautista was a dominant game-ender for the Orioles, with 33 saves during an All-Star 2023 campaign that ended with an arm injury in late August.

Every person who talked about Bautista returning to the team following his Tommy John surgery has expressed optimism. Rutschman loves hugging the 6-foot-8, 280-pound guy after a save. Hyde said he’s energized just by seeing “The Mountain” around again. Closing out games last year became an adventure and led to Craig Kimbrel’s midseason departure.

If Bautista stays healthy—Hyde said this week that he’s still working back into shape—the O’s can plan backwards from having a reliable ninth-inning performer. That would make everything else easier, allowing the team to mix more relievers in earlier innings, and, perhaps, not depend on starting pitching to go deep in games.